Heartbeat Indicator
This indicator is designed to track potential economic anomalies by analysing the relationship between U.S. home prices, the S&P 500 (SPX), and the National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI), along with the unemployment rate.
MMRI – Mannarino Market Risk Indicator
Indicator made by Greg Mannarino. All else being equal, when dxy and treasury yields are high, it’s considered a “risk off” environment.
Macromicro.me
Valuable range of economic and financial indicators.
https://en.macromicro.me/macro/us
Wilshire 5000 to Treasury Debt Ratio
The Wilshire 5000 index includes most common stocks and REITs traded on the New York Stock Exchange, NASDAQ, and AMEX. This market cap total over the total marketable U.S. treasury debt gives us a big picture view of the relative valuation of stocks. Today’s ratio of 2:1 is about fair value.
Tradingview formula: FRED:WILL5000PR/FRED:GFDEBTN
Or you can find a more complex version of this ratio FRED data(black line) as a reliable leading indicator of recession.
Updated Chart 9/4/2021
From since 2018 to now, the ratio of stocks to treasuries has just reached above the 2018 highs. Meaning, as hard as it may be to believe, stocks are still fairly priced historically, when compared to U.S. treasuries. The secular shift to private assets is still very much in play.
Yield Curve
In economics, the yield curve is a slope plotting multiple yields or interest rates across different contract lengths (2 month, 2 year, 20 year, etc.) The curve shows the relation between the (level of the) interest rate (or cost of borrowing) and the time to maturity, known as the term.
Interpretation: An inverted yield curve indicates that investors are receiving more interest on short term bonds than on long term bonds. This is abnormal as there should usually be a higher interest premium on borrowings locked up for a longer periods of time. This is an indication of upcoming recession.
The current yield curve shows a flattening trend, but we still have room before this recession indicator is triggered. From stockcharts.com
Market Cap to GDP
Also known as “The Buffet Indicator” this measures the Willshire Total Market Cap/GDP. A market cap above GDP is seen as overvalued for stocks. However, since the Willshire was below GDP in the 70’s 80’s and 90’s, it stands to reason that it may be able to likewise sustain itself above current GDP levels for years to come.
https://www.longtermtrends.net/market-cap-to-gdp-the-buffett-indicator/
Digital Advertising Rates
Our economy and consumer spending, is driven more by digital advertising than ever before. These paid advertisements such as Facebook CPC are positively correlated with financial markets.
You can find live rates on digital ads here.